i am a complete novice when it comes to horses but, here's what i've noticed

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in your heart, you know i'm right
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when looking on the racing channel toteboards, the horses whose odds get shorter as the money pours in, usually finish in the top 3.

is this an abberition? is it common sense? seems the way to bet is to follow the money.

i realize i could be all wet here and am not viewing a large sample size. but, time and time again i've seen a horse thats like 12:1 got to 4:1 and finish in the top 3. never seems to go the other way (horse that starts 2:1 and ends 5:1 usually finishes out of the money).

comments please.
 
Blue:

I'm not sure which tracks you normally follow, but I will say that a 12-1 drop to 4-1 is somewhat of a rarity on the larger circuits, especially if the drop is occurring in the final few minutes. You need to know the amount of money in the win pools to estimate. At the smaller venues, a win bet at low as $100 can change the odds as such, and consequently, those huge odds swings mean very little. If it occurs at Belmont park on the Saturday feature, well, it probably means you've just witnessed a 6-figure win bet, and may be something to think about.

I would suggest following the exacta probables to find the "live" horses. Insiders with good information about a horse will almost always go for the big score, and leave all the clues on the exacta tote...Rather than tipping their hand with a huge win bet that even the most casual race fan could detect on the win odds tote.

Hope this helps...
 

in your heart, you know i'm right
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thanks glacken. are you saying to watch the change in the exacta odds as opposed to the win odds? also, the tracks i was watching were calder, hollywood and mountaineer - and the shift in odds was from the morning line to the post time odds.
 
Blue:

I would highly recommend watching the exacta odds. Here's an example of what to look for:

Let's say there are two horses taking win money in a large field. The public has made them both 5/2. Look at the exacta probables. If it's paying $18 one way and $14 the other, it may be safe to assume the short exacta has the "live" horse on top. Of course, there are many other factors to consider, one being morning line odds. If the morning line on one of the horses was 6-5, you would expect the exacta with that entry on top to be lower. All things being equal, I believe you can find winners on the exacta tote.
I also look for live longshots via the exacta pools... Horses going off 10-1 or so who have lower than normal exacta probables.Should the favorite over a 10-1 shot ever pay less than the same favorite over a 5-1? Again, every race is unique but ask yourself "why?" and try to get a feel of when things look amiss.

Insiders (and by insiders I don't mean race fixers..just people close to the connections who may be expecting a huge effort) would tip off just about everyone if they bet enough to significantly change the win odds on their horse. The alternative is to play the exotics..huge exacta wheels which aren't as easily noticed by the public. It doesn't happen every race, but if you are patient you can catch a nice one.

As for morning line odds disparities, well, the morning line is only as good as the track's linemaker. Some are good, some are awful.
Races with firsters tend to get the biggest line changes, and the money is usually sharp.

Hope this helps...happy hunting!
 

sds

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As a "newer" handicapper , I found this thread to be very useful. This is the type of info that I am looking for if anyone can add anything useful in the "what to look for" column.
As well ,I wouldn't mind knowing which "type" of bets you are using most often and/or combination bets to soften losses etc

Thanks in advance

sds
 

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